Leveraging Random Forest (RF) and Long Short-Term Memory Algorithms (LSTM) for Enhanced Cholera Outbreak Prediction and Response System in Zambia

David Simfukwe*, Regi Anbumozhi Y.**, Esther J.***, Douglas Kunda****
*-**** School of Computer Science and Technology, DMI St.Eugene University, Lusaka, Zambia.
Periodicity:July - December'2025

Abstract

Zambia has experienced recurrent cholera outbreaks since 1977, with the 2023-2024 epidemic recording over 10,887 cases and 432 deaths, the most severe in the nation's history. These outbreaks persist due to inadequate surveillance, delayed reporting, and a lack of predictive capacity regarding environmental triggers (like rain and temperature), resulting in slow detection and a delayed response. This paper proposes a hybrid AI-driven Early Warning System (EWS) that integrates the Random Forest (RF) for case classification and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for temporal outbreak forecasting. The system combines community-based mobile reporting with environmental data analysis to facilitate real-time surveillance. Using a proxy dataset (YEM-CHOLERA-EOC-DIS-WEEK-20160424-20200621.csv) to simulate the outbreak dynamics in the absence of local digital records, the proposed RF-LSTM ensemble model has demonstrated superior performance compared to the standalone models. The hybrid model has achieved a classification F1-score of 86% and a forecasting Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.134, significantly outperforming the individual RF and LSTM models. This study presents a scalable, proactive framework for mitigating future cholera epidemics in resource-constrained settings.

Keywords

Random Forest, LSTM, Geospatial Mapping, Cholera Prediction, Machine Learning, Zambia.

How to Cite this Article?

Simfukwe, D., Anbumozhi, Y. R., Esther, J., and Kunda, D. (2025). Leveraging Random Forest (RF) and Long Short-Term Memory Algorithms (LSTM) for Enhanced Cholera Outbreak Prediction and Response System in Zambia. International Journal of Computing Algorithm, 14(2), 20-30.

References

[8]. Onyijen, O. H., Olaitan, E. O., Olayinka, T. C., & Oyelola, S. (2023). Data-driven machine learning techniques for the prediction of cholera outbreak in west africa. Western European Journal of Modern Experiments and Scientific Methods, 1(1), 33-51.
If you have access to this article please login to view the article or kindly login to purchase the article

Purchase Instant Access

Single Article

North Americas,UK,
Middle East,Europe
India Rest of world
USD EUR INR USD-ROW
Pdf 35 35 200
Online 15 15 200
Pdf & Online 35 35 400

Options for accessing this content:
  • If you would like institutional access to this content, please recommend the title to your librarian.
    Library Recommendation Form
  • If you already have i-manager's user account: Login above and proceed to purchase the article.
  • New Users: Please register, then proceed to purchase the article.