i-manager Publications

Comparison of Estimators of 2-Parameter Weibull Distribution for Modelling Surface Wind Speed of North Indian Region

N. Vivekanandan*

Hydrometeorology Division, Central Water and Power Research Station, Pune, Maharashtra, India.

Periodicity:October - December'2025

Abstract

Knowledge of the probability distribution of surface wind speed (SWS) is essential for surface flux estimation, wind power estimation, and wind risk assessments that are required to be analyzed through a physical or statistical approach. This paper presented a study on the application of 2-parameter Weibull (WB2) distribution based on a statistical approach for modelling surface wind speed (SWS) of the North Indian region covering the Delhi-National Capital Region and adjoining areas. The parameters of WB2 were determined by six methods, viz., method of moments (MoM), maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), method of L-Moments (LMO), empirical method (EPM), graphical method (GPM), and weighted least squares method (WLS), and used for further analysis. The adequacy of fitting of the methods of WB2 was evaluated by the Goodness-of-Fit (viz., Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS)) test, while the selection was made through model performance analysis using various indicators such as correlation coefficient (CC), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE). The KS test results confirmed the applicability of five methods other than LMO for modelling SWS. The study showed that there is a good correlation between the observed and predicted SWS by six methods of WB2, and the CC values vary between 0.981 and 0.983. The study also showed that NSE given by MLE and GPM is about 96%, whereas it is about 95% for MoM and EPM, 93.6% for WLS, and about 70% for LMO. Based on RMSE values, the MLE was adjudged as better suited amongst all methods of WB2 applied for modelling SWS data. The paper demonstrates that the results can serve as one of the input parameters for estimating surface flux and wind power, as well as for assessing wind-related risks.

Keywords

Correlation coefficient, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Mean Squared Error, Weibull, Wind Speed.

How to Cite this Article?

Vivekanandan, N. (2025). Comparison of Estimators of 2-Parameter Weibull Distribution for Modelling Surface Wind Speed of North Indian Region. i-manager’s Journal on Civil Engineering, 15(4), 22-28.

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