An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of Tax Revenue Determinants in Kenya: A Longitudinal Approach

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Periodicity:January - April'2024

Abstract

Economic development remains a paramount global objective, yet many developing nations, including Kenya, face persistent fiscal deficits and reliance on foreign aid despite abundant natural resources. Effective tax policies are crucial in addressing these challenges by reducing deficits, fostering economic growth, and alleviating poverty. The volatility of tax income poses a significant challenge for Sub-Saharan African countries, contributing to erratic public spending and hindering sustainable economic progress. Recent global economic crises have underscored the urgency for these nations to bolster local revenue sources and overcome structural barriers to economic development. This article examines the factors of tax revenue in Kenya over 39 years from 1984 to 2022. Utilising data from various sources, including the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI), the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the study employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to distinguish long-run relationships from short-run dynamics due to the mixed order of integration among variables. The empirical model includes real GDP, agricultural gross value added, general government expenditure, inflation consumer price, Official Development Assistance, and industrial gross value added as key determinants. The ARDL bounds test confirms a long-term equilibrium Connection between the variables and the error correction model. indicates a relatively quick adjustment process, with around 25% of disequilibrium corrected within a single period. The long-run ARDL estimation results suggest that agricultural value added significantly enhances tax revenue, while other variables like GDP and government expenditure show no significant long-term effect. In the short run, the lagged tax-to-GDP ratio and GDP significantly impact tax revenue. The findings underscore the importance of agricultural productivity and provide insights for policymakers aiming to enhance tax revenue in Kenya.

Keywords

Tax revenue, economic development, Tax determinants, ARDL model

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