Comparative Study on Methodology of Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis Over Dsha and Psha

Pradeep Verma *  Sana Zafar **
* Department of Civil Engineering, MMM University of Technology, Gorakhpur, India.
** Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, MMM University of Technology, Gorakhpur, India.

Abstract

Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis is an innovative method for seismic hazard analysis in India, based on realistic earthquake scenario. This paper shows a comparative study on methodology of neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis over DSHA and PSHA. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis and Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis provides only peak ground acceleration, but Neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis provides also other ground motion parameter like peak ground displacement and peak ground velocity that can play key role in developing seismic hazard maps. The objective of this research and use for seismic microzonation purposes were also discussed.

Keywords :

Introduction

India is listed under most seismically active countries and whenever earthquake struct loss of human life as well as property occurs. The commonly seismic hazard problem lies in the determination of the ground shaking characteristics associated with all the future earthquakes, which can be performed in various ways, like with a description of the ground motion severity due to an earthquake of a given distance and magnitude or with probabilistic maps of relevant parameters describing the ground motion hazard (Aki, 1987)

The present seismic regulation and building codes over the Indian territory are based on the Deterministic Seismic Hazard and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA), which is the most commonly used method for seismic hazard analysis and it is use for seismic code purposes, even though it has been found to be not fully consistent with modern earthquake approaches (Indian Metrological Department). Neglecting the result achieved by the research during a number. of decades, the standard PSHA represents a conventional and obsolete procedure, which is based on the probabilistic analysis of the earthquake catalogue and of ground motion information, retrieved by macroseismic observations and instrumental recordings, which may lead to severe underestimations of seismic hazard, especially in areas where historical information is scarce. A more adequate definition of the seismic hazard can be given by the Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis, which addresses some issues largely neglected in probabilistic hazard analysis (Panza and Romanelli, 2014 ). A set of earthquake scenarios can be defined and the ground motion parameters can be derived from synthetic time histories, without having to wait for a strong event to occur. Synthetic seismograms are computed, using the knowledge of the physical process of earthquake generation and wave propagation in realistic media, in short time and at a very low cost/benefit ratio. They are produced to model the ground motion at sites of interest and can be used as seismic input in subsequent engineering analyses aimed at the computation of the full non-linear seismic response of buildings (Biswas, 1987) .

1. Objective of the Study

Objective of this review on NDSHA over methodology of other used seismic hazard analysis in India like DSHA and PSHA is to provide a framework for researcher to carry out further research based on Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis as NDSHA also provides other ground motion parameters like velocity, displacement, etc., that will be an important parameter to develop seismic hazard map.

2. Methodology

The procedure for the Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) addresses some issues largely neglected in probabilistic hazard analysis, namely how crustal properties affect propagation and attenuation of wave trains: ground motion parameters are not derived from overly simplified attenuation functions, but rather from synthetic time histories. In fact, synthetic seismograms can be computed to model ground motion at sites of interest, using knowledge of the physical process of earthquake generation and wave propagation in realistic inelastic media (Panza et al., 2011).

2.1 Standard Neo-Deterministic Zoning

The flow-chart of the standard neo-deterministic procedure at national scale is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Flowchart of the Standard Neo-Deterministic Procedure for Seismic Hazard Assessment

3. Comparision between Methodology of Neo- Deterministic and DSHA, PSHA

The comparison between methodology of neodeterministic seismic hazard analysis over DSHA and PSHA has been given below:

3.1 Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis

NDSHA is a pattern based recognition technique when it combines with physically sound method for ground shaking. It may play an important role in producing seismic hazard map. Various steps for Neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis are as follows (Kliigel et al., 2006).

Step 1:

Step 2:

Step 3:

Step 4:

3.2 Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Deterministic seismic hazard analysis is based on a particular earthquake scenario. Various steps for deterministic seismic hazard analysis are as follows (Bus et al., 2000).

Step 1:

Step 2:

Step 3:

Step 4:

3.3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

PSHA is based on considering uncertainties in the size, location, and rate of recurrence of Earthquake. Various steps for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are as follows (McGuire, 2001).

Step 1:

Step 2:

Step 3:

Step 4:

The main advantage of the proposed neo-deterministic procedure is the simultaneous treatment of the contribution of the seismic source and seismic wave propagation media to the strong motion at the target site/region, as required by basic physical principles.

4. Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Use for Seismic Microzonation Purposes

NDSHA can be used as a part of seismic microzonation. Mainly seismic hazard problem lies in the determination of ground shaking at both local and regional level. Seismic hazard analysis can be done by various ways, like Deterministic approach and Probabilistic approach (Nath, 2007). But Neo-deterministic approach gives a realistic description of seismic ground motion associated with an earthquake of given magnitude and distance. The methodology of NDSHA is based on the calculation of synthetic seismogram. It is possible to compute all parameters relevant to seismic engineering like peak ground acceleration, peak ground displacement, and peak ground velocity. Neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis can be used at the regional scale to computing seismogram at node of grid with specified spacing or local scale on the basis of source characteristics and geotechnical and geological condition.

5. Result and Discussion

NDSHA uses all the homogeneously available data in the framework of physical model of seismogenesis. This model have natural limit, but less severe compared to statistical model that is used for seismic hazard analysis like Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis, where Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis gives probability of exceedance at given level, but that is not very sufficient to seismic hazard. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis gives only peak ground acceleration based on historical data available that gives maximum credible earthquake, but it is not very reliable, where large earthquake data is considered for analysis. PSHA gives small value compared to NDSHA and for low seismicity, NDSHA gives lower value. These differences recommend reliability of NDSHA approach for seismic hazard analysis. NDSHA can also be used for where earthquake data is not so complete. Reliability of such result decreases, but it is better than result obtained by using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (Panza et al., 2001).

Conclusion

The scenario based analysis is based on observable data and facts and it is complimented by physical modelling techniques. In sensitivity analysis, lack of data can be easily dealt due to the limited amount of scenario are to be investigated. The given Neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis provides reliable and realistic seismic parameter, which can be directly used in seismic design like land using, urban planning, and estimating the earthquake resistant capacity. NDSHA provides a complete framework of ground motion parameters like peak ground acceleration, peak ground displacement, and peak ground velocity to develop a seismic hazard map. The comparative analysis of methodology of DSHA and PSHA were discussed in this work.

References

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