The Relationship Between Value, Net Income, And Book Values

Chao-Hui Yeh *  Ti-Ling Wang **
*Department of Business Administration, I-Shou University, Taiwan, Roc.
** Department of International Business, Kao Yuan University, Taiwan, Roc.

Abstract

The central variables of this paper are value, net income (wealth creation), book values (wealth accumulated), and dividends (wealth distribution). This paper provides a conceptually useful foundation for the study of net income, book values, and dividends as to how these variables relate to equity value. The discussion makes the case that the analysis is also of empirical interest. This paper systemized overview of the Ohlson 1995(O95) literatures. The paper considers situations in which price equal capitalized forward net income add growth in net income and book values. Accounting, or the financial reporting model, has its own rules, and these make their presence felt all the time. The CSR has a role to interlock the book values and net income. Book values differ from net income because the latter need a capitalization factor to be of the same order of scale as book values. Dividends decrease market value on a dollar-for-dollar basis as dividends (i) decrease book value similarly on a dollar-for-dollar basis but (ii) do not affect the expected residual income series. This paper shows further that the value replacement property tangles closely with the idea that dividends decrease subsequent periods' expected earnings. That is, the more the dividends today pay out; the less the book values accumulate today. The less the book values accumulate today; the less the future net income will come tomorrow. Finally, this paper studies two simple ideas. First, one can use residual income valuation model to predict stock value. Second, mathematical zero-sum series equality provides the analytical starting point and ensures analytical simplicity. These two ideas combine to yield many closed- form valuation models. Without violating the PVED precept, one obtains explicit and basic models relating market value to book value and income.

Keywords :

  

Introduction

After Ohlson 1995(O95) and Yeh (2001), literature has been published numerous papers on accounting data and value. A review of this literature reveals that many themes and insights recur across the papers. This paper addresses the essence of O95 and tries to integrate the O95 literatures, and thereby making the O95 literatures more accessible to the average reader. Only with a systemized overview of the O95 literatures can a reader compare how models differ in their key characteristics (like their reliance on certain measures of growth). The paper considers situations in which price equal capitalized forward net income add growth in net income and book values.

As a preliminary to deal with growth, the paper lays out the framework for (i) Book Value plus Residual Income (BVRI) valuation model and (ii) Capitalized Earning & Increments in Residual Income (CE&IRI) valuation model. The derivations of the (i) and the (ii) are from present value of expected dividends (PVED), but the (i) emphasizes book values while the (ii) emphasizes earning (earning also called net income). The (I) represents PVED via book value plus the present value (PV) of residual net income. Residual net income can be thought of as simply the change in book values with an adjustment for dividends. This manner of treating at residual net income causes an emphasis of growth of book values. On the other hand, the (II) formula derivation does not introduce book values. The (II) formula represents PVED via capitalized both forward earning and the PV of capitalized increments in residual net income. Both (I) and (II) are valuation tools; the goal of this paper is to show how growth influences valuation.

The more detailed study of growth assumes that the residual net income variable satisfies a standard growth/decay dynamic The parameter γ identifies the long-term growth rate. The (I) formula then causes the market-to-book(P/B)1 model familiar from many textbooks (e.g. Penman 2006), and the (II) formula causes the so-called OJ model (Ohlson and Jeuttner-Nauroth 2005). Both (I) and (II) models can explain the price-to- forward-earning (P/E)2 ratio, but they do so with different dependent variables. In case of (I) formula, the return on equity (ROE)3 explains the P/E ratio

In case of (II) formula, the growth in expected net income explains the P/E ratio

The g2 defines the short-term growth (STG) in expected net income). Therefore one obtains two distinct ways of explaining the P/E ratio with transforming the mathematics. With growth being expected, it follows that the firm's price equates book values (or capitalized forward net income) add growth.

The central variables of this paper are value, earnings (wealth creation), book values (wealth accumulated) and dividends (wealth distribution).

1. The models

This paper uses the following notation:

Vt= Value (price) of equity, V = P

Dt = (net) Dividends

Bt= Book value

It = (net) Income (NI=EAT=earning after tax), I = EPS, the P/E ratio

= Residual (abnormal) Income (RI), R = 1+ r= the discount factor, an exogenous constant equals the risk-free rate. RI is defined as current earnings minus the risk-free rate times the beginning of period book value, that is, earnings minus a charge for the use of capital. (RI =earning after tax and cost of capital (cc), . If the ROE > r () then the firm has the positive RI.

Clean surplus relation (CSR), Bt - Bt-1= It - Dt. Regardless one considers growth in expected Income or book values, such growth depends on dividends and the retention of earning. The more the retention, the more the firm will grow.

As is normal, this paper assumes that PVED determines value:

The Et [] is an expectation operator.

We build on the dividend discount model (PVED) using the following unified valuation framework. The framework emphasizes that from a mathematical point of view, one can use dividends, earnings, residual earnings, or free cash flows for valuation. To simplify the mathematical expressions, hereafter date 0 (NOT t) specifies the valuation date.

Mathematical zero-sum series equality provides the analytical starting point. For any series of numbers x0,x1

If x (numerator) grows slower than R-t (denomenator), then

That  makes sense, due to no firm will grow forever. Adding PVED to zero-sum series produces the first equation

(1)

Certainly, the analysis is valid for any x-series. The idea is that one can represent value in respect of two parts: a starting point, x0 and a complement defined by the present value of a generic series, which  implants the series of dividends.

One starts with the book value of equity as follows.

By putting xt = Bt and combining it with residual income (RI) and clean surplus relation (C.S.R.).

We get and the second equation (2) and call it as

(I) Book Value plus Residual Income (BVRI) valuation model.

(2)

The price (V0) is explained by the initial book value (B0) and the subsequent growth in book value. If the firm has no growth (R.I.), then price (V0) equate the initial book value (B0). The model fastens value on book value and plus a premium for the present value of residual income (super growth in book value). The super growth is the growth beyond what could be achieved by making the normal rate of return on book value. Book value growth is explained by the ItR due to the subsequent book value t increase in ItR ().

The subsequent book value increase in ItR, due to

The means fixed dividends policy and k = 0 means zero dividends policy and the means growth in book value.

The market-to-book ratio ( ) increases as subsequent ItR increases

Proof of (2):

Replace It in R.I. with in C.S.R., we get

If xt is book value, is residual income
Replace xt in (1) with

Q. E. D.

Book value and its growth are famous valuation models only in banking industries. Analysts in many other industries focus on earnings and earnings growth. In the following, we show that instead of starting the valuation with book value, one can start with capitalized forward earnings and then plus a premium for abnormal earnings growth. We call this model the Capitalized Earning & Increments in Residual Income (CE&IRI) valuation model.

Instead of starting with book value of equity, one can start with the Capitalized earning as follows. In a similar spirit, by putting we get the third equation (3) and call it as (II) Capitalized Earning & Increments in Residual Income (CE&IRI) valuation model.

(3)

The price (V0) is explained by capitalization of next period's expected earning ( ) and the subsequent growth (increments) in residual net income.

Residual earning (income) growth is explained by the

Due to

If the firm has no growth ( ), then price (Vo) equate the capitalization of next period's expected earning (). That means time value of money. The V0 is the beginning investment, the I1 is income. Each dollar of stock price (V0) forecasts r dollars of next period earnings. In a certainty setting (referred to as the "savings account"), where Vt is the amount deposited in the savings account; x, is earnings (the dollar amount of the interest on the savings account deposit) for period t; r is the rate of interest on the savings account deposit; and Dt is the dividend paid to the owner of the savings account (the amount that the depositor chooses to withdraw) at time t.

Proof of (3)

In CSR we replace with and get

Q. E. D.

In the third equation

One interprets the item  as the increase in expected earnings in excess of the increase due to reinvestment of wealth () during the period. The equity value equals capitalized forthcoming earnings add a premium for growth in expected earnings in excess of the growth that could be realized by simply retaining the wealth generated in a fixed return () instead of paying dividends. In a fixed rate savings account, the item (-Dt) is the withdrawal and remaining amount (It - Dt) increases the savings account balance and yields additional interest income: r (It - Dt). For a savings account, the item r (It - Dt) equates ΔIt+1 and the item () is zero. Thus, there is no premium over capitalized forthcoming earnings. That is, the marginal investment in a savings account has zero NPV.

In a similar spirit, by putting  we get the fourth equation (4) and call it as capitalized dividends& increments in dividends valuation model (CD&IDVM).

(4)

The price (V0) is explained by capitalization of next period's expected dividends  and the subsequent growth (increments) in dividends.

Dividends growth is explained by the

due to

Those derivations (equations (2), (3) and (4)) do not depend on any conceptual restrictions on accounting data. There is, for example, no clear distinction between the distribution (D) and creation (I) of wealth.

If net income means creation of wealth, then dividends mean distribution of wealth.

After those derivations (equation (2), (3) and (4)), the reader will see why the author want to introduce equation (1). Because equation (1) has item   then   mean growth.

If  in the  then  means growth in book value.

If  in the  then  means growth in earning.

If  in the  then  means growth in dividend.

That  in equation (1) means zero growth in all accounting variables.

Moreover, this growth item  goes beyond the call of duty due to retained net income. In other words, this growth item  is, in fact, a dividend-adjusted growth. Now the question arises whether one can find some useful, additional assumption that parameterizes this growth item . All parameterizes are known.

1.1 Comparisons of model (I) BVRIVM and model (II) CE&IRIVM

Model (I) BVRIVM develop market value as book value plus a premium above book value for expected growth in book value, model (I) anchors valuation on book values. Such focus on book values is justified when book values near market values, for example, financial instruments are marked to market. So, model (I) is good to value financial institutions. But, the emphasis on book values is lost when firms are conservative accounting rules. E.g., the most important assets of knowledge intensive corporations are not shown on their books as investments in intellectual assets are not shown on their financial statements. Thus, their book values are underestimated and the ROE is over-estimated. Analysts valuing these firms usually do not use book value of equity as the starting point in their valuation. Thus, model (II) CE&IRIVM focus on the earnings and earnings growth expected from these “off-balance sheet” properties. Analysts focus on capitalized earning & increments in residual income (CE&IRIVM) because future earnings and earnings growth are less affected by conservatism than are book values. Thus, model (II) are heavily used for valuation.

In model (I) BVRIVM

if the item i.e.,  ROE=r, then model (I) reduce to Vt = Bt. Similarly, in model (II) CE&IRIVM
if the item  then model (II) reduce to . In a fixed rate savings account, the interest income expected from a savings account equals , which implies . For a savings account, the model (I) and model (II) are equivalent. Real firms, however, are not savings accounts.


2. Parameterized models explaining the P/E ratio

In what follows the authors do not initially attach any economic interpretation to this growth item . One can derive V0 as a function of x0 and x0 + x1 alone, given suitable assumptions on the x-series. Unsurprisingly, the assumption requires the yt -series to grow (or decay) geometrically. By imposing some structure on the pattern on yt we get a short formula. To make the model more realistic yet simple we do not restrict on one-year ahead yt allowing y1 being any positive number. After year 1 we assume yt grows at a constant rate. Specifically,  . Where 0 < γ is some presumed growth t parameter and 0 < yt. If yt = 0, then .

Given PVED and consider any series satisfying  and a related series  such that

Then

(5)

And

(5.1)

Where all parameterizes (ω, γ) are constants.

Proof of (5):

Given(1),

Armed with these analytical results, I next identify the two cases that explain the P/E ratio. The first approach, (a), refers to the growth in book value, and the second, (b), refers to the growth in net income.

(I) Setting x = B in (5) simply changes the notation and the (5) decreases to (6)

(6)

One reads  in (6) as the forthcoming growth in the expected book value, adjusted for dividends. The numerator adjustment for dividends is important: it reflects dividend policy irrelevancy (DPI). That is, the numerator does not depend on the next period's dividend decision since the cum-dividend book value, , does not depend on the dividend. Thus the choice of date-one dividends does not affect V0.

In CSR we replace with

Standard derivations of the model assume CSR. It causes the textbook expression:

Given (6),

(7)

Where

equals the forthcoming expected return on equity. It follows that  increases as ROE1 increases. With respect to γ - where now

The market-to-book ratio () increases as γ increases when . These conclusions are reasonable because they decrease to the idea that "growth in residual net income is good assuming they are initially positive". Relating the ratio to ROE has some attraction, certainly. But it needs a convincing real-world (For real-world reference purpose, we put a sample in endnote 4) motivation. Investors tend to ask "What factors explain the P/E ratio?" rather than "What factors explain the  ratio?" More important for our purposes, the last question is of interest because it has already been established that   is valid for time value of money

A model resting on book values ought not to rule out an explanation of the P/E ratio ().

Shifting the focus to the P/E ratio, simple manipulations of the last equation causes

(8)

Where

Proof of (8):

Given (7),

(8)

Q.E.D.

The left-hand-side variable of interest, the P/E ratio (), depends only on the right-hand-side variable ROE1 in addition to the parameters γ and R.

An evaluation of how ROE1 influences the P/E ratio (), depends on the sign of K2. Signing K2 sequentially lays the duty on the sign of 1 - γ. Is γ greater or less than one? It makes sense to require γ to exceed 1 if residual net income (ItR) is positive (i.e., ROE1 > r), just as γ should be less than one if ItR is negative (ROE1 < r). The first claim is based on the idea that if the firm is profitable, then, in expectation, the dollar amount of ItR should expand with time. Such an expected situation occurs if conservative accounting is combined with growth in the firm (if ROE1 > r but γ < 1, then ItR and Vt - Bt decline with t and both go to zero, which is conflicting with conservative accounting). As the second possibility, if the firm is unprofitable (ROE1 < r), then one should expect that the gap, ROE versus r, to be slowly closed in the future. And given ROE1 < r (or ItR < 0), ItR goes to zero as t → ∞ if and only if γ < 1. Thus ROE1 < r causes the condition y < 1.

Given the above restrictions — summarized by ItR (γ - 1) > 0 - it follows that if ROE1 is less than r, and then the price-to- forward net income ratio, the P/E ratio () decreases as ROE1 increases. For ROE1 greater than r, the P/E ratio now increases as ROE1 increases. In other words, as an empirical matter one should expect the function  on ROE1 to be U-shaped.

Despite the fact that the analysis may seem somewhat self-important and mechanical, it makes more intuitive sense than one might think initially. Consider a firm with ROE1 of, say, 20 percent when r = 10 percent. Such a firm is profitable, and the setting corresponds to γ > 1. Now it is clear that if the firm remains about equally profitable some day, then a computation shows that the growth in expected net income will be superior. Hence the P/E ratio ought to show a premium (exceed 1/r). Next consider when ROE1 is poor, say, 5 percent, which is the setting when y < 1. Now there is reason to expect that ROE improves with the passage of time. A computation now shows that even a modest improvement in ROE to, say, 6 percent implies a considerable growth, in expected net income. Again, the growth principle causes the conclusion that the P/E ratio reflects a premium. (As an empirical matter, it is easily verified, looking at real-world data, that the huge firms with subpar ROE1 such as than 7 percent, indeed have relatively large P/E ratios. Yet, as any textbook will note, such firms will also have below-average  ratios.)

The modeling allows for the case when the capitalized forward net income alone decides value: γ = 1 or ROE1 = r give the necessary and sufficient conditions. The case ROE1 = r is rather stale since now . The idea behind γ = 1 is more clever; now the conclusion follows even though V0 - B0 ≠ 0 (the sign depends on the sign of ItR, of course). However, γ = 1 implies V0 - B0 = V1 - B1 (γ = 0 implies Vt = Bt) and hence the expected balance sheet valuation "error" in the next year cancels with the one in the current year. And such canceling of error causes a perfect measure of expected net income so that  . That  means no growth. Profitability, as a concept, refers to the dividend-adjusted growth in book value, and  explains whether one believes CSR or not.

In x = B setting and also  that means no growth and price decay to

The equation

implies

Hence the more general model

admits for a growth in book values

to explain the  ratio less than . In the equation (5.2) that P0 increases as B0 decreases, holding (B1 + D1) fixed.

In xt = Bt setting and also . Thus

this setting thereby interlock between xt = Bt and

(II) Set . This setting interlocks with the (CE&IRIVM:

model framework. A geometric growth (decay) assumption now causes the equation (9).

(9)

Where

Proof of (9):

Given (5),

Put In(5), get

The item  defines the short-term growth (STG) in expected net income, adjusted for dividends (For realworld reference purpose, we put a sample in endnote 5). Like the book value model, DPI constructs in an adjustment for dividends. In the present case, the idea is that  does not depend on dividends because I2 depends directly on D1. A savings account illuminates the idea as it shows that D1 gives up net income in the subsequent period such that  is independent of D1.

Thus the dependent variable (V0) increases as g2 (STG) increases, as ought to be the case. With respect to γ, the dependent variable increases in γ if one assumes that g2 exceeds the level of cost-of-capital ( r). It, too, makes sense as γ represents long-term growth (LTG). For g2 equal cost-of-capital, LTG is now immaterial as the current growth is neutral to value. If the item g2 < r, a case of inferior growth, then it makes sense to think that γ is less than one. Now the P/E ratio () decreases as γ increases. But this limit does not affect whether the P/E ratio () increases as STG increases (given fixed γ and r): it forever increases as g2 increases.

The special case when the P/E ratio () suffice to decide value occurs if and only if g2 =r (equally, y1 = 0). The pricing (V0) reflects no premium unless there is growth in expected net income. The g2 measures the short-term growth in earnings (adjusted for earnings foregone in period t+2 due to next-year dividends). Hence, the model has two measures of growth in earnings, g2 and γ, explain the price to forward-earnings ratio.

Simple as the analysis is, one gets the following conclusion: the idea that the growth in net income explains the P/E ratio is a principle of generality.

3. The sustaining information dynamics (dynamics means time series)

This section affirms the two information dynamics that support the parameterized the (I) model and the (II) model framework, thus the modeling extends the benchmarks by growth. This generality implies that the P/E ratio exceeds 1/r. Simplicity and symmetry will be piece of the modeling: having thanked one of the dynamics, it becomes more or less repeated what the second must be. Each of the two dynamic have two parts: (a) a starting point as decided by either book value or net income, and (b) information that allows on the coming growth. With those concepts in mind, one can next expand the dynamic via periodidiosyncratic information, which makes the practical content of the model more realistic. Finally, I show the ways in which the modeling explains accounting conservatism.

The first case extends the (I) Book Value plus Residual Income (BVRI) valuation model such that it causes the parameterized the BVRIVM. Consider the dynamic equations

(ID1)

The disturbance terms have zero mean in the usual fashion. With respect to the incremental notation, one thinks of 01,t as general "other" information. It can depend on almost anything inside and outside the financial statements.

The second case generalizes (II) Capitalized earning& increments in residual income valuation model (CE&IRIVM) framework. Consider the dynamic equations

(ID2)

Each of the two dynamics implies a valuation answer which expresses how the price depends on the information and the parameters γ.

Assume PVED and consider two information dynamics. For ID1 value equals

(10)
Proof of (10)

Given (2)

For ID2 value equals

(11)

The equation (11) tells us that next period expected earnings, scaled by the inverse of the risk-free rate, decide value, if other information is zero.

Proof of (11)

Given (3)

Q. E. D.

For real-world reference purpose, we put a sample in endnote 6 about equation 11.

It is obvious that ID1 implies the  model. ID2, on the other hand, gives a more robust valuation setting. This watching suggests, speaking in broad terms, that an earnings point of view provides greater flexibility than a book value view. That said, for both models one easily explains the value via a growth construct. When the setting is certain, one put money a savings account. The dynamic (ID2) can be decreased to (ID2.1), like It+1 = R x It - r x Dt ... (ID2.1).

Expressing the dynamic this way makes it apparent that the change in earnings, It+1 - It, depends only on the earnings r x  (It - Dt) retained in the current period. t t Accordingly, the dividend policy alone explains the growth in earnings. Zero growth corresponds to a 100 percent payout; a growth that equals the discount factor corresponds to a zero payout. Common sense suggests that this growth effect due to retained earnings should influence any model of earnings and dividends. More general models, however, ought to also allow for growth that goes beyond this dividend policy effect, unlike a savings account. The more the retention holds, the more it grow.

The dynamic (ID2) deals with "superior" growth, which goes beyond the growth due to retained earnings in the dynamic (ID2.1).

O95 suggest that conservatism arises from two different sources. First, there exist positive net present value (NPV) projects. Second, the accounting rules can be basically conservative.

As to the first point, a firm may be observed to have the opportunity to undertake positive NPV projects. Such projects do not affect the accounting today, however the same is not true for today's value. Thus it goes without saying that the market value today can exceed both book value and next period's expected net income capitalized. (A general analysis exploits the (I) model and the (II) model).

Even so, equation (10) and (11) make it clear that this source of conservatism can happen only in the context of growth. will not exist with a positive NPV setting.

It is seen that the import of growth asserts any introduction of positive NPV projects. It may seem that positive NPV is not only sufficient but also necessary for the conservatism. Such is not the case, however. O95 provide a second point: the accounting rules themselves can be conservative besides not recognizing positive NPV opportunities. The accelerated depreciation, R&D and excess write-offs cases. Hence one can easily obtain an inequity where price exceeds book value only as a result of a downward bias in the balance-sheet valuation model. If in addition there is firm growth, then net income will also be relatively discouraged because they will be effectively "deferred".

For reference purpose, we put Yeh (2001) Residual Income valuation mode (RIVM) in endnote 7.

Conclusion

The paper proceeds in three steps. First it presents and critiques the extant valuation approaches namely the present value of expected dividends (PVED) and the residual income valuation model (RIVM). Second, it presents a framework to unify these extant models and to derive a model based on residual income and growth on residual income, which are the two most heavily watched metrics in the real world. Third, it presents a parsimonious parameterization of the net income-based model that is easy to implement and yet gives powerful insights into a firm's value and its perceived risk.

This paper provides a conceptually useful foundation for the study of net income, book values, and dividends as to how these variables relate to equity value. The discussion makes the case that the analysis is also of empirical interest.

Accounting, or the financial reporting model, has its own rules, and these make their presence felt all the time. The CSR has a role to interlock the book values and net income. Book values differ from net income because the latter need a capitalization factor to be of the same order of scale as book values. With respect to dividend, this paper discriminates the creation of wealth from its distribution and its accumulation: the dividend does indeed differ from the net income and book values, and the shift from PVED to various expressions that incorporate net income and book values implants the simple but important idea that the distribution of value must bring together and be in agreement with its creation and its accumulation. Wealth creation takes on fame insofar that the dividend policy itself cannot create any value — that is, DPI applies. Performance of this concept depends critically — and attractively — on the five accounting concepts: (i) dividends do not influence same-date net income (), (ii) dividends decrease book value () (iii) dividends decrease subsequent net income () since the decreased book value represents fewer resources essential to generate future net income, An increase in dividends at any given date decrease the subsequent period's expected earnings. Because risk neutrality obtains, the marginal effect of a dollar of dividends on next period's foregone expected earnings equals the risk-free rate. (iv) Dividends do not influence residual net income (), and (v) dividends do not influence increment () in residual net income ().

Does the analysis result in useful empirical implications? I think so, for the simple reason that investor starts from the principle that the growth of expected net income should justify the P/E ratio. And this is the principle that the analysis elaborates on, including "why net income" and the nature of the growth shapes. It certainly improves on the traditional, textbook, so-called constant growth model. The popularity of this model has been more dependent on the importance of the empirical issues that it can manage than on its intrinsic attraction.

Endnotes

References

[1]. Ohlson, J. A. (1995). Earnings, book values, and dividends in equity valuation. Contemporary Accounting Research 11 (2): 661-87.
[2]. Ohlson, J. A., and B. Jeuttner-Nauroth. (2005). Expected EPS and EPS growth as determinants of value. Review of Accounting Studies 10 (2-3): 349-65.
[3]. Penman, S. (2006). Financial statement analysis and security valuation, 3rd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
[4]. Yeh, chao-hui. (2001). A study on non-linear residual income valuation model, doctoral dissertation, National Sun Yat-sen University.