The central variables of this paper are value, net income (wealth creation), book values (wealth accumulated), and dividends (wealth distribution). This paper provides a conceptually useful foundation for the study of net income, book values, and dividends as to how these variables relate to equity value. The discussion makes the case that the analysis is also of empirical interest. This paper systemized overview of the Ohlson 1995(O95) literatures. The paper considers situations in which price equal capitalized forward net income add growth in net income and book values. Accounting, or the financial reporting model, has its own rules, and these make their presence felt all the time. The CSR has a role to interlock the book values and net income. Book values differ from net income because the latter need a capitalization factor to be of the same order of scale as book values. Dividends decrease market value on a dollar-for-dollar basis as dividends (i) decrease book value similarly on a dollar-for-dollar basis but (ii) do not affect the expected residual income series. This paper shows further that the value replacement property tangles closely with the idea that dividends decrease subsequent periods' expected earnings. That is, the more the dividends today pay out; the less the book values accumulate today. The less the book values accumulate today; the less the future net income will come tomorrow. Finally, this paper studies two simple ideas. First, one can use residual income valuation model to predict stock value. Second, mathematical zero-sum series equality provides the analytical starting point and ensures analytical simplicity. These two ideas combine to yield many closed- form valuation models. Without violating the PVED precept, one obtains explicit and basic models relating market value to book value and income.
After Ohlson 1995(O95) and Yeh (2001), literature has been published numerous papers on accounting data and value. A review of this literature reveals that many themes and insights recur across the papers. This paper addresses the essence of O95 and tries to integrate the O95 literatures, and thereby making the O95 literatures more accessible to the average reader. Only with a systemized overview of the O95 literatures can a reader compare how models differ in their key characteristics (like their reliance on certain measures of growth). The paper considers situations in which price equal capitalized forward net income add growth in net income and book values.
As a preliminary to deal with growth, the paper lays out the framework for (i) Book Value plus Residual Income (BVRI) valuation model and (ii) Capitalized Earning & Increments in Residual Income (CE&IRI) valuation model. The derivations of the (i) and the (ii) are from present value of expected dividends (PVED), but the (i) emphasizes book values while the (ii) emphasizes earning (earning also called net income). The (I) represents PVED via book value plus the present value (PV) of residual net income. Residual net income can be thought of as simply the change in book values with an adjustment for dividends. This manner of treating at residual net income causes an emphasis of growth of book values. On the other hand, the (II) formula derivation does not introduce book values. The (II) formula represents PVED via capitalized both forward earning and the PV of capitalized increments in residual net income. Both (I) and (II) are valuation tools; the goal of this paper is to show how growth influences valuation.
The more detailed study of growth assumes that the residual net income variable satisfies a standard growth/decay dynamic The parameter γ identifies the long-term growth rate. The (I) formula then causes the market-to-book(P/B)1 model familiar from many textbooks (e.g. Penman 2006), and the (II) formula causes the so-called OJ model (Ohlson and Jeuttner-Nauroth 2005). Both (I) and (II) models can explain the price-to- forward-earning (P/E)2 ratio, but they do so with different dependent variables. In case of (I) formula, the return on equity (ROE)3 explains the P/E ratio
In case of (II) formula, the growth in expected net income explains the P/E ratio
The g2 defines the short-term growth (STG) in expected net income). Therefore one obtains two distinct ways of explaining the P/E ratio with transforming the mathematics. With growth being expected, it follows that the firm's price equates book values (or capitalized forward net income) add growth.
The central variables of this paper are value, earnings (wealth creation), book values (wealth accumulated) and dividends (wealth distribution).
This paper uses the following notation:
Vt= Value (price) of equity, V = P
Dt = (net) Dividends
Bt= Book value
It = (net) Income (NI=EAT=earning after tax), I = EPS, the P/E ratio
= Residual (abnormal) Income (RI), R = 1+ r= the discount factor, an exogenous constant equals the risk-free rate. RI is defined as current earnings minus the risk-free rate times the beginning of period book value, that is, earnings minus a charge for the use of capital. (RI =earning after tax and cost of capital (cc),
. If the ROE > r (
) then the firm has the positive RI.
Clean surplus relation (CSR), Bt - Bt-1= It - Dt. Regardless one considers growth in expected Income or book values, such growth depends on dividends and the retention of earning. The more the retention, the more the firm will grow.
As is normal, this paper assumes that PVED determines value:
The Et [] is an expectation operator.
We build on the dividend discount model (PVED) using the following unified valuation framework. The framework emphasizes that from a mathematical point of view, one can use dividends, earnings, residual earnings, or free cash flows for valuation. To simplify the mathematical expressions, hereafter date 0 (NOT t) specifies the valuation date.
Mathematical zero-sum series equality provides the analytical starting point. For any series of numbers x0,x1…
If x (numerator) grows slower than R-t (denomenator), then
That makes sense, due to no firm will grow forever.
Adding PVED to zero-sum series produces the first
equation
Certainly, the analysis is valid for any x-series. The idea is
that one can represent value in respect of two parts: a
starting point, x0 and a complement defined by the present value of a generic series, which
implants the series of dividends.
One starts with the book value of equity as follows.
By putting xt = Bt and combining it with residual income (RI) and clean surplus relation (C.S.R.).
We get and the second equation (2) and call it as
(I) Book Value plus Residual Income (BVRI) valuation model.
The price (V0) is explained by the initial book value (B0) and the subsequent growth in book value. If the firm has no
growth (R.I.), then price (V0) equate the initial book value (B0). The model fastens value on book value and plus a premium for the present value of residual income (super
growth in book value). The super growth is the growth
beyond what could be achieved by making the normal
rate of return on book value. Book value growth is
explained by the ItR due to the subsequent book value t
increase in ItR ().
The subsequent book value increase in ItR, due to
The means fixed dividends policy and k = 0 means zero dividends policy and the
means growth in book value.
The market-to-book ratio ( ) increases as subsequent ItR
increases
Replace It in R.I. with in C.S.R., we get
If xt is book value, is residual income
Replace xt in (1) with
Book value and its growth are famous valuation models only in banking industries. Analysts in many other industries focus on earnings and earnings growth. In the following, we show that instead of starting the valuation with book value, one can start with capitalized forward earnings and then plus a premium for abnormal earnings growth. We call this model the Capitalized Earning & Increments in Residual Income (CE&IRI) valuation model.
Instead of starting with book value of equity, one can start
with the Capitalized earning as follows. In a similar spirit, by
putting we get the third equation (3) and call it as
(II) Capitalized Earning & Increments in Residual Income
(CE&IRI) valuation model.
The price (V0) is explained by capitalization of next period's expected earning ( ) and the subsequent growth
(increments) in residual net income.
Residual earning (income) growth is explained by the
If the firm has no growth ( ), then price (Vo) equate the
capitalization of next period's expected earning (
). That
means time value of money. The V0 is the beginning investment, the I1 is income. Each dollar of stock price (V0) forecasts r dollars of next period earnings. In a certainty setting (referred to as the "savings
account"), where Vt is the amount deposited in the savings account; x, is earnings (the dollar amount of the
interest on the savings account deposit) for period t; r is
the rate of interest on the savings account deposit; and
Dt is the dividend paid to the owner of the savings account (the amount that the depositor chooses to
withdraw) at time t.
In CSR we replace with
and get
In the third equation
One interprets the item as the increase in
expected earnings in excess of the increase due to
reinvestment of wealth (
) during the period. The equity value equals capitalized forthcoming earnings add a
premium for growth in expected earnings in excess of the
growth that could be realized by simply retaining the
wealth generated in a fixed return (
) instead of paying dividends. In a fixed rate savings account, the item
(-Dt) is the withdrawal and remaining amount (It - Dt) increases the savings account balance and yields
additional interest income: r (It - Dt). For a savings account, the item r (It - Dt) equates ΔIt+1 and the item (
) is
zero. Thus, there is no premium over capitalized
forthcoming earnings. That is, the marginal investment in a
savings account has zero NPV.
In a similar spirit, by putting we get the fourth
equation (4) and call it as capitalized dividends&
increments in dividends valuation model (CD&IDVM).
The price (V0) is explained by capitalization of next period's expected dividends and the subsequent growth
(increments) in dividends.
Dividends growth is explained by the
due to
Those derivations (equations (2), (3) and (4)) do not depend on any conceptual restrictions on accounting data. There is, for example, no clear distinction between the distribution (D) and creation (I) of wealth.
If net income means creation of wealth, then dividends mean distribution of wealth.
After those derivations (equation (2), (3) and (4)), the
reader will see why the author want to introduce equation
(1). Because equation (1) has item then
mean growth.
If in the
then
means
growth in book value.
If in the
then
means
growth in earning.
If in the
then
means
growth in dividend.
That in equation (1) means zero growth
in all accounting variables.
Moreover, this growth item goes beyond
the call of duty due to retained net income. In other words,
this growth item
is, in fact, a dividend-adjusted
growth. Now the question arises whether one can find
some useful, additional assumption that parameterizes
this growth item
. All parameterizes are known.
Model (I) BVRIVM develop market value as book value plus a premium above book value for expected growth in book value, model (I) anchors valuation on book values. Such focus on book values is justified when book values near market values, for example, financial instruments are marked to market. So, model (I) is good to value financial institutions. But, the emphasis on book values is lost when firms are conservative accounting rules. E.g., the most important assets of knowledge intensive corporations are not shown on their books as investments in intellectual assets are not shown on their financial statements. Thus, their book values are underestimated and the ROE is over-estimated. Analysts valuing these firms usually do not use book value of equity as the starting point in their valuation. Thus, model (II) CE&IRIVM focus on the earnings and earnings growth expected from these “off-balance sheet” properties. Analysts focus on capitalized earning & increments in residual income (CE&IRIVM) because future earnings and earnings growth are less affected by conservatism than are book values. Thus, model (II) are heavily used for valuation.
In model (I) BVRIVM
In what follows the authors do not initially attach any
economic interpretation to this growth item . One can derive V0 as a function of x0 and x0 + x1 alone, given suitable assumptions on the x-series. Unsurprisingly, the
assumption requires the yt -series
to grow (or decay) geometrically. By imposing some structure on the
pattern on yt we get a short formula. To make the model
more realistic yet simple we do not restrict on one-year
ahead yt allowing y1 being any positive number. After year 1
we assume yt grows at a constant rate. Specifically,
. Where 0 < γ is some presumed growth t
parameter and 0 < yt. If yt = 0, then
.
Given PVED and consider any series satisfying
and a related series
such that
Then
And
Where all parameterizes (ω, γ) are constants.
Given(1),
Armed with these analytical results, I next identify the two cases that explain the P/E ratio. The first approach, (a), refers to the growth in book value, and the second, (b), refers to the growth in net income.
(I) Setting x = B in (5) simply changes the notation and the (5) decreases to (6)
One reads in (6) as the forthcoming growth in the
expected book value, adjusted for dividends. The
numerator adjustment for dividends is important: it reflects
dividend policy irrelevancy (DPI). That is, the numerator
does not depend on the next period's dividend decision
since the cum-dividend book value,
, does not depend on the dividend. Thus the choice of date-one
dividends does not affect V0.
In CSR we replace with
Standard derivations of the model assume CSR. It causes the textbook expression:
Given (6),
Where
equals the forthcoming expected return
on equity. It follows that increases as ROE1 increases. With respect to γ - where now
The market-to-book ratio () increases as γ increases when
. These conclusions are reasonable because they decrease to the idea that "growth in residual net income is
good assuming they are initially positive". Relating the
ratio to ROE has some attraction, certainly. But it needs a convincing real-world (For real-world reference
purpose, we put a sample in endnote 4) motivation.
Investors tend to ask "What factors explain the P/E ratio?"
rather than "What factors explain the
ratio?" More
important for our purposes, the last question is of interest
because it has already been established that
is valid
for time value of money
A model
resting on book values ought not to rule out an
explanation of the P/E ratio ().
Shifting the focus to the P/E ratio, simple manipulations of the last equation causes
Where
Given (7),
Q.E.D.
The left-hand-side variable of interest, the P/E ratio (),
depends only on the right-hand-side variable ROE1 in addition to the parameters γ and R.
An evaluation of how ROE1 influences the P/E ratio (), depends on the sign of K2. Signing K2 sequentially lays the duty on the sign of 1 - γ. Is γ greater or less than one? It
makes sense to require γ to exceed 1 if residual net
income (ItR) is positive (i.e., ROE1 > r), just as γ should be less than one if ItR is negative (ROE1 < r). The first claim is based on the idea that if the firm is profitable, then, in
expectation, the dollar amount of ItR should expand with time. Such an expected situation occurs if conservative
accounting is combined with growth in the firm (if ROE1 > r but γ < 1, then ItR and Vt - Bt decline with t and both go to zero, which is conflicting with conservative accounting).
As the second possibility, if the firm is unprofitable (ROE1 < r), then one should expect that the gap, ROE versus r, to be slowly closed in the future. And given ROE1 < r (or ItR < 0), ItR goes to zero as t → ∞ if and only if γ < 1. Thus ROE1 < r causes the condition y < 1.
Given the above restrictions — summarized by ItR (γ - 1) > 0 - it follows that if ROE1 is less than r, and then the price-to-
forward net income ratio, the P/E ratio () decreases as
ROE1 increases. For ROE1 greater than r, the P/E ratio now increases as ROE1 increases. In other words, as an empirical matter one should expect the function
on
ROE1 to be U-shaped.
Despite the fact that the analysis may seem somewhat
self-important and mechanical, it makes more intuitive
sense than one might think initially. Consider a firm with
ROE1 of, say, 20 percent when r = 10 percent. Such a firm is profitable, and the setting corresponds to γ > 1. Now it is
clear that if the firm remains about equally profitable
some day, then a computation shows that the growth in
expected net income will be superior. Hence the P/E ratio
ought to show a premium (exceed 1/r). Next consider
when ROE1 is poor, say, 5 percent, which is the setting when y < 1. Now there is reason to expect that ROE improves with
the passage of time. A computation now shows that even
a modest improvement in ROE to, say, 6 percent implies a
considerable growth, in expected net income. Again, the
growth principle causes the conclusion that the P/E ratio
reflects a premium. (As an empirical matter, it is easily
verified, looking at real-world data, that the huge firms with
subpar ROE1 such as than 7 percent, indeed have relatively large P/E ratios. Yet, as any textbook will note,
such firms will also have below-average ratios.)
The modeling allows for the case when the capitalized
forward net income alone decides value: γ = 1 or ROE1 = r
give the necessary and sufficient conditions. The case
ROE1 = r is rather stale since now . The idea behind γ = 1 is more clever; now the conclusion
follows even though V0 - B0 ≠ 0 (the sign depends on the sign of ItR, of course). However, γ = 1 implies V0 - B0 = V1 - B1 (γ = 0 implies Vt = Bt) and hence the expected balance
sheet valuation "error" in the next year cancels with the
one in the current year. And such canceling of error
causes a perfect measure of expected net income so
that
. That
means no growth. Profitability,
as a concept, refers to the dividend-adjusted growth in
book value, and
explains
whether one believes
CSR or not.
In x = B setting and also that means no
growth and price decay to
The equation
implies
Hence the more general model
admits for a growth in book values
to explain the ratio less than . In the equation (5.2)
that P0 increases as B0 decreases, holding (B1 + D1) fixed.
In xt = Bt setting and also . Thus
this setting thereby interlock between xt = Bt and
(II) Set . This setting interlocks with the (CE&IRIVM:
model framework. A geometric growth (decay) assumption now causes the equation (9).
Where
Given (5),
Put In(5), get
The item defines the short-term growth (STG)
in expected net income, adjusted for dividends (For realworld
reference purpose, we put a sample in endnote 5).
Like the book value model, DPI constructs in an
adjustment for dividends. In the present case, the idea is
that
does not depend on dividends because I2 depends directly on D1. A savings account illuminates the idea as it shows that D1 gives up net income in the subsequent period such that
is independent of D1.
Thus the dependent variable (V0) increases as g2 (STG) increases, as ought to be the case. With respect to γ, the
dependent variable increases in γ if one assumes that g2
exceeds the level of cost-of-capital ( r). It, too, makes
sense as γ represents long-term growth (LTG). For g2 equal cost-of-capital, LTG is now immaterial as the current
growth is neutral to value. If the item g2 < r, a case of inferior growth, then it makes sense to think that γ is less than one.
Now the P/E ratio () decreases as γ increases. But this limit does not affect whether the P/E ratio (
) increases as STG
increases (given fixed γ and r): it forever increases as g2
increases.
The special case when the P/E ratio () suffice to decide
value occurs if and only if g2 =r (equally, y1 = 0). The pricing (V0) reflects no premium unless there is growth in expected net income. The g2 measures the short-term growth in earnings (adjusted for earnings foregone in period t+2
due to next-year dividends). Hence, the model has two
measures of growth in earnings, g2 and γ, explain the price to forward-earnings ratio.
Simple as the analysis is, one gets the following conclusion: the idea that the growth in net income explains the P/E ratio is a principle of generality.
This section affirms the two information dynamics that support the parameterized the (I) model and the (II) model framework, thus the modeling extends the benchmarks by growth. This generality implies that the P/E ratio exceeds 1/r. Simplicity and symmetry will be piece of the modeling: having thanked one of the dynamics, it becomes more or less repeated what the second must be. Each of the two dynamic have two parts: (a) a starting point as decided by either book value or net income, and (b) information that allows on the coming growth. With those concepts in mind, one can next expand the dynamic via periodidiosyncratic information, which makes the practical content of the model more realistic. Finally, I show the ways in which the modeling explains accounting conservatism.
The first case extends the (I) Book Value plus Residual Income (BVRI) valuation model such that it causes the parameterized the BVRIVM. Consider the dynamic equations
The disturbance terms have zero mean in the usual fashion. With respect to the incremental notation, one thinks of 01,t as general "other" information. It can depend on almost anything inside and outside the financial statements.
The second case generalizes (II) Capitalized earning& increments in residual income valuation model (CE&IRIVM) framework. Consider the dynamic equations
Each of the two dynamics implies a valuation answer which expresses how the price depends on the information and the parameters γ.
Assume PVED and consider two information dynamics. For ID1 value equals
Given (2)
For ID2 value equals
The equation (11) tells us that next period expected earnings, scaled by the inverse of the risk-free rate, decide value, if other information is zero.
Proof of (11)Given (3)
Q. E. D.
For real-world reference purpose, we put a sample in endnote 6 about equation 11.
It is obvious that ID1 implies the model. ID2, on the
other hand, gives a more robust valuation setting. This
watching suggests, speaking in broad terms, that an
earnings point of view provides greater flexibility than a book
value view. That said, for both models one easily explains
the value via a growth construct. When the setting is certain,
one put money a savings account. The dynamic (ID2) can
be decreased to (ID2.1), like It+1 = R x It - r x Dt ... (ID2.1).
Expressing the dynamic this way makes it apparent that the change in earnings, It+1 - It, depends only on the earnings r x (It - Dt) retained in the current period. t t Accordingly, the dividend policy alone explains the growth in earnings. Zero growth corresponds to a 100 percent payout; a growth that equals the discount factor corresponds to a zero payout. Common sense suggests that this growth effect due to retained earnings should influence any model of earnings and dividends. More general models, however, ought to also allow for growth that goes beyond this dividend policy effect, unlike a savings account. The more the retention holds, the more it grow.
The dynamic (ID2) deals with "superior" growth, which goes beyond the growth due to retained earnings in the dynamic (ID2.1).
O95 suggest that conservatism arises from two different sources. First, there exist positive net present value (NPV) projects. Second, the accounting rules can be basically conservative.
As to the first point, a firm may be observed to have the opportunity to undertake positive NPV projects. Such projects do not affect the accounting today, however the same is not true for today's value. Thus it goes without saying that the market value today can exceed both book value and next period's expected net income capitalized. (A general analysis exploits the (I) model and the (II) model).
Even so, equation (10) and (11) make it clear that this
source of conservatism can happen only in the context of
growth. will not exist
with a positive NPV setting.
It is seen that the import of growth asserts any introduction of positive NPV projects. It may seem that positive NPV is not only sufficient but also necessary for the conservatism. Such is not the case, however. O95 provide a second point: the accounting rules themselves can be conservative besides not recognizing positive NPV opportunities. The accelerated depreciation, R&D and excess write-offs cases. Hence one can easily obtain an inequity where price exceeds book value only as a result of a downward bias in the balance-sheet valuation model. If in addition there is firm growth, then net income will also be relatively discouraged because they will be effectively "deferred".
For reference purpose, we put Yeh (2001) Residual Income valuation mode (RIVM) in endnote 7.
The paper proceeds in three steps. First it presents and critiques the extant valuation approaches namely the present value of expected dividends (PVED) and the residual income valuation model (RIVM). Second, it presents a framework to unify these extant models and to derive a model based on residual income and growth on residual income, which are the two most heavily watched metrics in the real world. Third, it presents a parsimonious parameterization of the net income-based model that is easy to implement and yet gives powerful insights into a firm's value and its perceived risk.
This paper provides a conceptually useful foundation for the study of net income, book values, and dividends as to how these variables relate to equity value. The discussion makes the case that the analysis is also of empirical interest.
Accounting, or the financial reporting model, has its own
rules, and these make their presence felt all the time. The
CSR has a role to interlock the book values and net
income. Book values differ from net income because the
latter need a capitalization factor to be of the same order
of scale as book values. With respect to dividend, this
paper discriminates the creation of wealth from its
distribution and its accumulation: the dividend does
indeed differ from the net income and book values, and
the shift from PVED to various expressions that incorporate
net income and book values implants the simple but
important idea that the distribution of value must bring
together and be in agreement with its creation and its
accumulation. Wealth creation takes on fame insofar that
the dividend policy itself cannot create any value — that
is, DPI applies. Performance of this concept depends
critically — and attractively — on the five accounting
concepts: (i) dividends do not influence same-date net income (), (ii) dividends decrease book value (
)
(iii) dividends decrease subsequent net income (
)
since the decreased book value represents fewer resources
essential to generate future net income, An increase in
dividends at any given date decrease the subsequent
period's expected earnings. Because risk neutrality obtains,
the marginal effect of a dollar of dividends on next period's
foregone expected earnings equals the risk-free rate. (iv)
Dividends do not influence residual net income (
),
and (v) dividends do not influence increment (
) in residual net income (
).
Does the analysis result in useful empirical implications? I think so, for the simple reason that investor starts from the principle that the growth of expected net income should justify the P/E ratio. And this is the principle that the analysis elaborates on, including "why net income" and the nature of the growth shapes. It certainly improves on the traditional, textbook, so-called constant growth model. The popularity of this model has been more dependent on the importance of the empirical issues that it can manage than on its intrinsic attraction.