JMGT_V4_N2_RP1
Analysts Reliance on the Capital Market's Estimate for Firm Growth Potential: An Empirical Analysis of Forecast Error and Bias
Lonnie Bryant
Jocelyn Evans
Peter S. Knox
Journal on Management
2230 – 715X
4
2
21
36
Analyst forecast error and bias, Tobin's Q, Information intermediation
The popular press often states that analyst decisions over an extended time period have significant influence over security prices. It is often assumed that analysts add value by conducting in-depth research on public traded firms that enable investors to gauge the attractiveness of each stock. We analyse whether either analyst forecast error or the magnitude of error bias affect the market's estimated of a firm's future growth potential as measured by Tobin's Q and vice-versa. The findings show that analyst have no influence over capital market perception of firm value. Instead, analyst forecast error and bias herds around movement in Tobin's Q. (JEL G10, G29).
September - November 2009
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